The Daily Signal – August 13, 2009

August 15, 2009

As I mentioned in the first email this “system” ( the “daily ” on the S&P500 ) has had a long string on MAJOR winning trades = around 200 S&P points or call it 2000 Dow points. I thought I would share the picture and mention that there has NEVER been really been any significant moves – - I am talking REAL moves – - that this “trending system” stays on wrong side of for long.

In this case the “flip” – - the SELL signal right back to BUY signal – - lost 20 S&P points. This loss is after making around 100 pts on the last BUY signal. Charts are in order of; daily, weekly, monthly.

DAILY buy SIG Aug13

Weekly S&P500 AUg13

S&P 500 montly Aug13

This is something I built to ALWAYS be in a long or short so as to have a bias. I have built the same thing with stops and profit protects and all that BUT it’s use here is simply edge.

I will send the daily, weekly, and monthly signals from this system to those who want them = no NEED to respond to how they work- – win, lose or draw.

It is simply a tool to have a “vibe” as to what the market looks like over those timeframes.

I contend the results are better than MOST anyone can do by guessing or listening to TV or being dead blind to the fact we live in a chaotic environment and “inital conditions” change repeatedly and it is impossible to KNOW the future – the prediction error increases the longer the prediction!

So, it’s nice to have the edge that these signals provide. Myself, I would have gone broke many times over throughout the last decade IF I didnt look at these charts. Look at my 2003 list of market negatives on the site WWW.SCOPELABS.NET – - I called the WAR which hadn’t started yet, the dollar’s drop, the Subprime nightmare, the rise in OIL and about 20 other HUGE problems! And then watched the market go to new highs but didn’t lose because I had signals telling me WHAT the market was doing – NOT what I thought it should be doing.

(Rant) So, use this tool for an edge, or don’t use it and stick with the forever-wrong Wallsteet crew or the CNBC bobble-heads or someday IF he lives long enough or stops getting bailed out himself Warren Buffett – he that rents money for short periods then loses it all! with NO rules as to risk management or at least NO good REAL rules etc. It’s reprehensible that he lost 50% in 44 days. And they still call him the Oracle. Give me a break.

So since i haven’t mentioned Warren lately, I will use this email to show you how he got “bailed out” (see link) and his admission that after 20 years of saying that “derivatives are weapons of mass desturction” he is NOW loaded with them to point that if the market drops back thru the lows he dies broke!

“Buy and hold” what a JOKE!!! Old Warren would have tapped-out already IF the Government or US taxpayers weren’t there to backstop his sorry ass.

Link to Buffet – BusinessInsider Article

Here are more recent comments from Warren:

Buffett’s Berkshire: “We goofed on derivative risks” – Reuters

Reuters reports Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) underestimated the risks of falling stock prices to its billions of dollars of derivatives bets, yet still believes it is valuing the contracts fairly. Berkshire revealed its error in a June 26 letter to the SEC, one of several pieces of correspondence with the regulator about the company’s annual report, and made public on Thursday. It also agreed to SEC demands for more explanation on $1.8 billion of writedowns on stock investments, and $2.7 billion of auction-rate and other municipal debt holdings. On June 29, the SEC said it completed its review without further comment. The correspondence shows Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire, which has close to 80 businesses and ended June with more than $136 billion of stocks, bonds and cash, is struggling to comply with SEC requirements to disclose enough about its finances. This issue had surfaced in June 2008, when the regulator demanded “a more robust disclosure” of how the insurance and investment company values its derivatives. Buffett did provide some additional disclosure, in what he called “excruciating detail,” in his annual shareholder letter in February. Berkshire, through Buffett’s assistant Carrie Kizer, had no immediate comment.

LOOK at the link! and then THINK how simple my work is = BUY or SELL manage the money with prudence etc! NOT roll-all-the-marbles at someone elses expense unless you are part of the crew that is riskless at OUR the taxpayers expense!!!!!!

{ 1 comment… read it below or add one }

bryce August 29, 2009 at 9:37 pm

“I will send the daily, weekly, and monthly signals from this system to those who want them = no NEED to respond to how they work- – win, lose or draw.”

Yes please?

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