October 13, 2009
I am writing this article for those of you who suffered losses due to the market meltdown of 2008. So I guess I’m writing this for pretty much - nearly everyone. It’s my sincere hope that you’ve been able to recoup some of your losses considering we’ve just had the greatest bear market rally in history. My aim is to get anyone who will listen to take advantage of the breathing-room this rally has bought us and ask yourself a series of questions.
The two most important questions anyone with any money at risk in the US financial markets should ask themselves at this critical point in economic history are exceedingly simple. One, are you prepared for another market meltdown? And two, what is your new exit strategy when things do go wrong?
Another perplexing question you might ask yourself is this. How did my financial advisor not have a clue that history’s most catastrophic economic storm was brewing in the credit markets? It was blatantly obvious. The canary in the coal mine fell off its perch, dead as a doornail, in February of 2008 when the ‘auction rate preferred’ paper froze (an instrument of 7 to 28 day maturity that the wealthy have historically kept their liquid cash in at 100 bps higher than money market funds) - a sign that anyone with any knowledge of the financial markets should have known was ominous and would precipitate other catastrophic events.
I wanted to begin this article with a few provocative questions to get you thinking, because most often it is combination of complacency and inertia that causes financial undoing. The inability to act as it were. Watching as Rome burns, hoping things will return to normal. Well there is no normal anymore. Normal only exists in hindsight.
By answering the questions above, among others, alarm bells should be going off in your head - remember that dead canary at the bottom of the cage.
Think about this for a moment. Why is it that your broker or financial advisor knows pretty much everything about your financial history but you know nothing about theirs other than what they’ve led you to believe? Sure they might look impressive in their designer suits and leased German sedan, but have you ever seen their tax returns? If you’re broker or financial advisor can’t prove they are immensely more successful than you, what good are they? As a matter of fact if these self-proclaimed experts of finance have a tax-loss carry forward, arguably making them lifetime losers, what makes you think they won’t create the same losses for you and hence, the same financial hell?
Each of these are good questions in their own right but are unfortunately only the tip of what seems to be a sinking iceberg.
Speaking of icebergs, when the auction-rate-preferred paper seized in February of 2008 (foreshadowing seven months later the commercial paper market freeze - an instrument ironically created by none other than Goldman Sachs in 1868 and mostly used by the truly wealthy to park their liquid cash short-term in blocks of roughly ten million or more) anyone with any knowledge of how financial markets function should have stopped in their tracks and screamed at their clients to run for the exits. The freezing of the short-term paper markets was identical to the JP-Morgan-owned Titanic ramming into that fateful iceberg, its steel hull ripping open the sound so horrifying anyone within earshot should have known the end was near. Just ask Lehman. Instead, what we heard from most brokers and financial advisors was something completely different. The fundamentals are sound, they said. We’re the largest economy in the world. We can’t possibly fail.
Why CNBC, along with inept and proven-failed economic theorists who’ve won fake Nobel Prizes in economics, and retail stock brokers have this Svengali-like mojo over the public is beyond me! And why anyone would believe that a complete stranger would exercise more diligence over the management of your money is again, bewildering. If I were attempting to protect my capital base but had entrusted this task either in part or in whole to a broker or financial institution you better believe I’d be asking myself some very pointed questions right now.
The latter could be the most important question you ask. If your broker or financial advisor has NOT made you money why on earth are you still with them? At the onset of hiring them what did you actually know about them other than they dressed nice and had a low golf handicap? Maybe they had the appearance of wealth - the ultimate deception. Frankly, I’ve seen car salesman wearing Rolex watches and writing with Monte Blanc pens - it didn’t make them wealthy. And let’s not forget your broker or financial advisor most likely stood idly by while the biggest tectonic shift in economic history was unfolding before their unseeing eyes - and they probably did nothing to get you out of harm’s way.
Wouldn’t it make sense at this juncture after the markets have rallied back such a significant amount to not fall victim to “economic amnesia“? Wasn’t it just six months ago that the world was coming to an end in the wake of Hank Paulson, on his way out the door no less, threatening congress with martial law and rich people and Wall Streeters alike committing suicide on a daily basis? How soon we forget that September of ’08 led to Dow 6,469 in March of ’09, hence me coining the aforementioned term “economic amnesia” to describe the public’s short-term memory meltdown.
To revisit my original intention in writing this article, I cannot stress to you the importance of understanding exactly what is going on in the world. No one is to be trusted with your money. Not Wall Street, not the banks, not the government - nobody is to be trusted! Does the investing public not realize that Wall Street almost lost every penny of American wealth? Now we’re supposed to believe they’ve saved the day? I beg to differ. Those parasitic liars nearly took us to zero. Who knows, they still might.
The grossly deluded public has been at the mercy of brokers, financial advisors, Wall Street, the Fed, congress, and the US Treasury far too long. This moral hazard and subsequent uneven playing-field created by the current financial structure (the trifecta of the Fed, Treasury, and the “Banksters”) wherein the scales of balance tip only upward, hence siphoning this nation’s wealth into the coffers of those that create such hazards. Their current solutions to this crisis, a crisis of their own making, is nothing more than a replication of the same idiotic practices that got us here in the first place; corporate bailouts, homebuyer tax-rebates, foreclosure moratoriums, cash-for-clunkers, all designed to forego the inevitable sanctification of sins past and deliver them on to the US taxpayer. The difference between the past and present is that now we have a government willing to set up shop and take over entire industries; mortgage lending, auto, banking, and who knows going into the future. Just wait, we’ll be in the airline business in no time. I feel like I’m in a perpetual state of Déjà vu - with a repeat of September 2008 barreling headlong around the next bend.
That we exist in a quasi public-private financial system wherein the government in collusion with the Fed and the “Banksters” take your money essentially by force (specifically through the leverage of ZIRP) or otherwise and shove it into new toxic instruments, bailouts, and ill-conceived stimulus programs that even these so-called best-and-brightest have no concept of the inherent risks, or hazard of unintended consequences, is proof that the entire game is rigged against you.
It is time to take control of your money.
Now, with regard to the subject of managing one’s own money, the rules of the game have officially changed. The EXTINCTION OF ETHICS in today’s financial markets IS the new rule. You must take total responsibility for the management of your own money and you must do it now! I don’t know how to make it any more clear. I could probably write an entire thesis about the utter abandonment of morality by today’s so-called investment community. I mean, does everybody have to cheat each other to make a dollar? The subject literally brings into question the human thread that binds our social fabric together.
Given the dire state of the global economy and the fact our collective economic situation has gotten significantly worse, not better, creates an opportune time to shift any misplaced philosophy of trust in a corrupt system and recognize that we’re in the middle of a COVER-UP, NOT A RECOVERY!
A comment I always appreciated and have tried to take credit for but know I plagiarized from somewhere is this; ANTICIPATING BAD LUCK IS GOOD LUCK; DEPENDING ON GOOD LUCK IS BAD LUCK. This so-called recovery is merely a papered-over facade made possible by trillions of newly created dollars. The time to prevent getting thrown back into the ditch is now. Remember, do not fall victim to the CNBC-induced epidemic of “economic amnesia“.
When asking yourself the questions I have posed, be totally objective with respect to your gains and losses over time. Be dead truthful - because the margin for error has never been so razor thin.
Tagged as: bailout, bubble, economics, economy, federal reserve, financial markets, gold, government, us dollar, us treasury
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Great article Sir.
I also think it is time to fly well above the economic weather at this juncture and by that I mean 1/3 Gold and 2/3 Cash. The insiders can have their stocks.
When this thing crashes again due to high Oil prices caused by the Central Banksters inflationary policies, we can then find a way to buy Crude Oil on the cheap… (crossing fingers here).
Regarding the article, please allow me to add this:
If you are finally capable of managing your own money, then please tell the ones you love to do the same and get them out of the Banksters grip!
-LW
Nitpick of the day: It is “Mont Blanc” and not “Monte Blanc” (you may remove this line before posting).
Why would you think there’s going to be another meltdown with the governments of the world clearly having demonstrated that they can keep markets propped up? Are you suggesting the thing we really have to worry about is the government fiscal situation melting down? I hardly see oil melting down again (OPEC and Goldman Sachs have such enormous power it is ridiculous). I hardly see bank stocks melting down: every piece of toxic debt they have is easily bought by Helicopter Ben. I am a bond girl and not in stocks, but I see no reason why you would warn people away from the only comparatively safe area of the financial markets.
Please add to the ‘questions’ area:
If your financial advisor is so “good”…why is he/she working at all? He should be enjoying life and relaxing with a glass of champagne, at his mansion in the Mediterranean!
Looks like I tried to leave a comment but it failed. Sorry about that. Could not find it in my sent mail. Another day.
Good article. You should advise us peons with small 401Ks (since we represent a huge contingent). But in like fashion to your suggestion, I bulled out all of my losses since incept over the past year at 24.8% gains YTD, netting me a loss at incept of -0.9%, then opted out of contributions altogether this month, and dumped everything into the recently added Mrly Stbl Val VI+++ (most conservative thing they have) earning Bernanke’s assanine savings rate. As dollar values decline, I’m still in a losing proposition, but you’ll be glad to know that I’m one person who pulled the plug on contributions and won’t be seing a 25% loss when the next crash comes.
I’ll need all the cash I can squeeze out of my paycheck to fund the coming baliout taxes at Fedral, State and County levels.
How is it that just anybody can write a blog and get as popular as this? Its not like you’ve said anything incredibly impressive -more like youve painted a pretty picture over an issue that you know nothing about! I dont want to sound mean, here. But do you really think that you can get away with adding some pretty pictures and not really say anything? Regards, Los Gatos Dentist,
maybe i can answer your 1st question = how about get perfect market calls published in Barrons and Reuters that to a vlaue >that the entire value of the current SPX value = run a hedge fund and return 60% a year for 9 runs years … makes 10s of millions of dollars and retire young rather than pimp teeth whiting gel … does that help u out ? in term of me NOT knowing waht i talk about maybe show me your acct and statements and show me how dnetist beat my proven published track resonr maybe go Goggle or go to my site SCOPELABS.net and LOOK at waht i say and have said and PLEASE share your insights if your track record beats mine I will gladly throw a few mill your way to manage for me … I am logical and reasonable person I deal with empirical FACTS IF your track record better tahn mine BU ALL Means i can put my work aside and use yours … why dont you ck your acct in between cleanings?
thanks for chiming in!
-G
forfuck sake u can beat me in a speeling bee maybe is the only place you gopt aleg up fuck my teeth probally whiter than yours too lol -G
u KNOW what? why DONT u refute 1 fucking thing i said you stupid fuck!
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