One of the dilemmas of making the
“important“ decisions in life is that you are usually called
upon to make them - - these “choices”
that could be life changing events - - under the worst of conditions
- - either under extreme stress, confusion, sickness, or what seems
like unreasonable timeframes leaving you at the highest probability
of, in fact, making the wrong/worst decisions.
By using an "Outline" to take “inventory” of
the situation from a purely mathematical basis to evaluate WHAT ARE
THE "TRUE ODDS" IN REAL PERCENTAGE TERMS can only be helpful?
I personally feel, first and foremost, that determining whether the
"ends justify the means" is the FIRST QUESTION THAT NEEDS
to be HONESTLY answered to start the process.
Should you even engage in making the call/decision? Sometimes just saying
“no” to most questions rather than “yes” or “maybe” (for
some reason the natural response I had or maybe most people do?) and
giving no reason has been serving me well in the little things/questions
since I started my notes on writing this outline.
I FEEL THE REFUSAL TO “THINK”
IS EVIL! and leads to disastrous results - - by not simply going
thru the below exercise to determine if it is in fact a “good bet”
I have only myself to blame when/if things go wrong... the switch to
becoming a “system trader” over last several years coupled with
playing probably >2000 hours of poker (I am profitable and in the
top 10% of online players in 2008) has changed the way I look and the
way I answer even simple questions or make decisions.
#1 Do you have any pure “EMPIRICAL” data - - and how much/how
many data points?
Is/are their enough data points? Are there 10 circumstances in row in
your favor? a 100?, a 1000? = try and define your edge in a “hard”
way makes most sense right? - - MAKE SURE YOU DON’T FALL VICTIM
TO THE “LAWS OF CAUSALITY!!!”
#3 What is/was the “premise”
of the data? How many variables were there in the “sample test”
that you are using?
#4 If using say “Pascal’s
triangle” or you had to think about what a “Vegas” bookmaker’s
“line” would be in pure percentage terms? What % are you favored
by? 60%, 80% etc.? Have you used “confirmation bias” or are you
relying on “blind evidence”?
#5 Are you using “inductive
probability” rather than ”deductive probability”? if so, have
you adjusted for the WHY you feel you can fade the hard odds?
Win, lose or draw have you prepared the “EXIT STRATEGY“?
Have you WRITTEN DOWN (actually in writing) the plan of action
as to the “exit strategy” so not to fade or change (stay
honest to yourself!!!) the plan?
Other thoughts to take into account:
1. All coincidences are living
on borrowed time - - there are “outliers” waiting to get you!
2. It matters NOT how often
something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear!
3. It’s NEVER really “different
THIS time” there is nothing new under the sun = sure, things change/evolve,
but relying on the difference is too costly.
4. EVERYTHING is in a state
of entropy, so prepare to make adjustments.
5. Just because I am paranoid
DOES NOT mean “they’ are not after me? or you or that bad things
6. Understanding that the “law
of BIG numbers” when evaluating statistics and odds is what is going
to make most situations go well “ANTICIPATING BAD LUCK IS GOOD
LUCK AND DEPENDING ON GOOD LUCK IS BAD LUCK”