From: Greg Simmons [mailto:GSimmons@rothcp.com]
Sent: Wednesday, December 08, 2004 4:14 PM
To: Greg Simmons
Subject: "MARKET UPDATE"
DECEMBER 8 2004
THE SPX CLOSED UP 5.74 @ 1182.81
THE VIX CLOSED DOWN .48 @ 13.19
YESTERDAY THE VIX ONLY DROPPED BY .48 ON A >13 POINT DROP (SHOULD HAVE BEEN DOWN WELL OVER 1 POINT) AND TODAY IT GOT THE WHOLE .48 BACK ON ONLY A >5 POINT RISE. IN THE SHORT TERM WHAT THIS DOES IS GIVE THE DOWNSIDE ALITTLE MORE DISTANCE BEFORE THE VIX CAN BECOME OVERBOUGHT AND IS A NEGATIVE FOR THE SPX.
I SAID YESTERDAY THAT I THOUGHT I WOULD BE DONE MENTIONING ALAN GREENSPAN AS ONE OF MY BIGGEST CONCERNS/CAUSES FOR THE NEXT LEG OF THIS BEAR MARKET THAT HAS BEEN POSTPONED PRETTY MUCH SINGLE HANDILY BY THE FED CHIEF, BUT THESE FEW COMMENTS FROM RUSSELL ABOUT THE MORTGAGE/REAL ESTATE MARKET ARE TOO GOOD/IMPORTANT NOT TO REVISIT:
"Now let's turn to the present. I want to start with a few recent words from "Mr. Inflation," better known as Alan Greenspan. "Rising interest rates have been advertised for so long and in so many places that anyone who has not appropriately hedged this position by now obviously is desirous of losing money."
How about that? Here's the guy who less than a year ago suggested that we all move to adjustable-rate mortgages, and now we're idiots if we haven't already hedged our position for higher rates. What's the poor sap who bought a house with almost nothing down and a low-interest adjustable-rate mortgage going to do as rates rise? The poor devil that bought the house won't know what hit him when rates go up and he loses his house. What can he do? He'll probably whine and tell his sad story to his local newspaper."
THERE, NOW I THINK IM DONE MENTIONING THE FED CHIEF'S ROLE IN WHAT I BELIEVE WILL BE A SITUATION TAKES THE MARKET WELL BELOW THE 2002 LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS IF NOT SOONER.