----- Original Message -----
From: G Simmons
To: scopelabs
Sent: October 7, 2004
OCTOBER 7 2004
THE SPX CLOSED DOWN 11.40 @ 1130.65
THE VIX CLOSED UP 1.22 @ 14.50
WELL SO MUCH FOR BEING ABLE TO GET THRU THAT TOP STANDARD DEVIATION NUMBER @ 1142.05 (WE TOUCHED IT TO THE PENNY AND FAILED) I MENTIONED YESTERDAY...
KEEP IN MIND THE MARKET ONLY TRAVELS OUTSIDE OF THE STANDARD DEVIATIONS 5.3% OF THE TIME AND INASMUCH AS IT DOES AND CAN HAPPEN IT MAKES FOR A BAD BET i.e. MY COMMENT YESTERDAY THAT THE RISK TO REWARD RATIO WAS ABOUT 4 TO 1 TO THE DOWNSIDE.
THE CHANCE OF RUNNING HIGHER IS NOT TOTALLY DEAD BECAUSE OF TODAY'S DROP, PLUS THE VIX OUTRAN TO THE UPSIDE VIA THE SIZE OF TODAY'S DROP WHICH I MIGHT BE ABLE TO ARGUE IS DUE TO TOMORROWS UNEMPLOYMENT (JOKINGLY REFERRED TO BY SOME AS THE "UNENJOYMENT") REPORT WHICH WILL BE LAST ONE RELEASED PRIOR TO THE ELECTION.
IF, AS SOME THINK, THAT THE NUMBERS ARE SOMETIMES MANIPULATED HERE WOULD BE A GREAT CHANCE TO DO IT FOR THE BUSH REELECTION EFFORT.
I HAVE RECEIVED SOME COMMENTS REGARDS MY LONGER TERM "BEARISH" TILT ON THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE MARKET AND USING COMMENTS FROM "THE DAILY RECKONING" WHICH IS A PRETTY BEARISH (I THINK WELL WRITTEN NEWSLETTER) SO I THINK WILL USE A TOTALLY ORIGINAL THOUGHT TODAY.
MY THOUGHT (BESIDES THE "TITANIC" ONE) IS THIS:
IF YOU WERE SINGLE AND WENT BARS AND MET A SINGLE PERSON WHO ADMITTED TO YOU THAT THEY HAD "FULL BLOWN AIDS", NOT JUST HIV POS. , BUT FULL BLOWN AIDS WOULD YOU SLEEP WITH THEM?
KEEP IN MIND YOU MIGHT NOT DIE OR CONTACT THE DISEASE THAT NIGHT OR AT ALL FROM THIS ENCOUNTER AND MAY HAVE A GREAT TIME.
OWNING STOCKS IN TODAY'S MARKET, KNOWING THE LIST OF FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEMS THAT SOMEDAY WILL PLAGUE THIS WHAT I SEE TO BE A SECULAR BEAR MARKET, TO ME WOULD BE EXACTLY THE SAME AS GOING BACK AND SLEEPING WITH THE PERSON WITH AIDS DAY IN AND DAY OUT - - SOMEDAY YOU WILL GET SICK AND DIE.
IN A SECULAR BEAR MARKET SOMEDAY (WHO KNOWS EXACTLY WHEN) YOU WILL LOSE ALL OR MOST OF YOUR MONEY PERIOD.
-G |