-----Original Message-----
From: Greg Simmons
Sent: Monday, May 10, 2004 2:58 PM
To: Greg Simmons
Subject: MARKET UPDATE
MAY 10 2004
THE SPX CLOSED DOWN 11.58 @ 1087.12 (MINUS 15.29 ON FRIDAY)
THE VIX CLOSED UP 1.64 @ 19.77 (PLUS 1.08 ON FRIDAY)
NOT ONLY DID WE BREAK THE 1087.06 LOW HIT ON MARCH 24 TODAY, WE ALSO HIT/BROKE THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE OF 1079.93 WHICH HASN'T HAPPENED SINCE MAY OF 2003.
I SUGGESTED IN MARCH OF THIS YEAR THAT THE "YEAR OF STUPIDITY" (MAR'03 THRU MAR'04) WAS DEAD AND
THE MARKETS WOULD TAKE BACK ON A SENSE OF NORMALCY i.e. "GREED" CAUSING BIG RUNS AND "FEAR" CAUSING BIG DECLINES. WE HAD ONE HUGE RALLY AFTER THAT HAD ME WONDERING WHETHER I WAS MAYBE EARLY IN MY PRONOUNCING IT DEAD.
THE EVIDENCE IS NOW 100% CONFIRMED - - THERE IS REAL "FEAR" IN THE SYSTEM NOW AND THE MARKETS WILL NOT ACT LIKE THEY DID DURING "THE YEAR OF STUPIDITY" i.e. EVERY PIECE OF NEWS IS CAUSE TO TAKE THE MARKET HIGHER WITH ZERO VOLATILITY AND ZERO RISK ASSOCIATED WITH INVESTING.
NOTICE THE PRICE SWINGS AND VOLATILITY UNLIKE ANYTHING WE HAVE SEEN SINCE MARCH OF 2003 IN THE CHART BELOW - - ALSO NOTICE HOW WE ARE SWINGING FROM THE TOP STANDARD DEVIATION TO THE BOTTOM AND BACK AGAIN AND AGAIN = THIS IS WHAT "REAL LIFE" MARKETS LOOK LIKE AND DO, THEY DON'T JUST GRIND HIGHER DAILY MAKING EVERYONE HAPPY EVERYDAY LIKE DURING THE "YEAR OF STUPIDITY".
I WAS QUITE WRONG ON THURSDAY NIGHTS UPDATE WHEN I THOUGHT THEY WOULD BE ABLE TO PUT TOGETHER A MEANINGFUL RALLY ON FRIDAY WITH A GOOD JOBS NUMBER. THE NUMBER THOUGH "GOOD" WAS SEEN AS "BAD" ALONG WITH >$40 CRUDE OIL, PLUS SOME OTHER NEGATIVE NEWS. THE SAME NEWS THAT WAS SEEN AS "GREAT" ONE MONTH AGO IS NOW "TERRIBLE" ??? THE WHOLE WORLD KNOWS, OR SHOULD HAVE KNOWN, THAT RATES CANT STAY AT 46+ YEAR LOWS OR 1% FOREVER, BUT NOW ITS LIKE A BIG SURPRISE OR SHOCK???
THE MARKET FROM HERE IS EXTREMELY OVERSOLD (WELL BELOW IT'S BOTTOM STANDARD DEVIATION) AND THE VIX IS ALSO VERY HIGH >20 INTRA-DAY SO WE SHOULD BE DUE SOME SORT OF DECENT RALLY IN THE SHORT TERM FROM A TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE.
FROM A FUNDAMENTAL PERSPECTIVE THE ELECTION SHOULD STILL PROVIDE SUPPORT - - I FEEL IT WILL BE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE FOR BUSH TO GET REELECTED IF THE MARKET IS IN SHAMBLES.
AFTER THE ELECTION I FEEL THE "BEAR MARKET" THAT STARTED IN 1999 THAT HAS BEEN IN HIBERNATION WILL WAKE UP AND TAKE THE MARKETS DOWN TO LOWS THAT ARE UNIMAGINABLE TODAY OVER A PERIOD OF MANY YEARS.
-G |